Myanmar's Unfolding Crisis: Towards a Fragmented Future?

 Keywords: Myanmar, Political Crisis, Fragmentation, Borderlands, NUG, EAOs, SAC

Date: 1st July, 2024

Myanmar's civil war has significantly escalated with rebels achieving substantial victories and pushing the military out of many border regions. The struggle has evolved from the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) of 2021 to a full-scale armed conflict. While the military maintains a precarious hold on power, the possible fragmentation of the country looks more real than ever. 

The nature of conflicts in Myanmar have changed and expanded. From 2021, marked by CDM, to widespread protests and clashes involving the military in 2023, where the ethnic armies launched major offensives and captured significant territory along the China and India borders. Today, the Myanmar military faces significant challenges. 

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and its allies have targeted key areas in Kachin State, occupying several towns and over 80 junta positions. Recently, they launched attacks in Momauk and Mansi townships, aiming to isolate military troops in Bhamo and expand their buffer zone around Laiza. 

The Arakan Army (AA) has seized over half of Rakhine State and parts of Chin State, including Buthidaung town and parts of Maungdaw. These gains threaten junta control in northern Rakhine and the Bangladesh border. Chin resistance forces captured Cikha and Tonzang near the Indian border, while tensions flared between Myanmar's military and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) over a ceasefire violation. 

Additionally, conflicts are ongoing in Karen, Shan and Sagaing states. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of Karen National Union (KNU), captured nearly 50 Myanmar soldiers in Tanintharyi, southern Myanmar. This is the first major KNLA victory in the region since April 2024. 

Two ethnic armed groups in southern Myanmar formed after the 2021 coup, the Mon State Revolutionary Force (MSRF) and the Mon State Defense Force (MSFD), have formed an alliance to capture military outposts and take control of townships in Mon state. Sagaing state has witnessed a maximum number of conflicts with the resistance forces in Sagaing launching multiple attacks on Myanmar military bases and convoys. 

Within ethnic armies also tensions have escalated, for instance the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the TNLA in Kutkai, northern Shan State, despite their joint offensive against the military, detained and arrested each other's soldiers. 

Additionally, foreign fighters have started joining anti-regime forces in Myanmar, aiming to bolster the resistance against the military. Although estimates suggest only around a dozen foreigners have enlisted, they bring crucial combat experience and tactical expertise to aid the resistance. 

On the other hand, the military's escalating violence, including bombings and airstrikes, has resulted in civilian casualties. Both sides now employ advanced drones, heightening the conflict and raising concerns about further violence. However, a major challenge for opposition forces across the country remains the shortage of arms and ammunition. 

Furthermore, efforts by the National Unity Government (NUG) and militias to establish urban resistance fronts have been limited. Attempts to capture strategic towns have stalled, and some "liberated" areas have suffered near-total destruction and depopulation. Furthermore, their control in contested areas remains precarious, often coinciding with high levels of violence and instability. 

The ongoing crisis points towards the fact that Myanmar is in a persistent state of conflict and there is a possibility of fragmentation in the future. A recent International Crisis Group report underscores this reality. While the military may not be on the immediate verge of collapse, ethnic groups are consolidating their control over their respective territories, solidifying a fragmented Myanmar. 

Observers have examined the likelihood of a continued fragmented state of affairs in Myanmar. For instance, Morten B. Pedersen outlined the progression of armed resistance in Myanmar over three phases. From establishing a foothold in the first phase, i.e, initial months of the coup, to controlling the strategic nodes in the third phase in 2023, there have been significant developments, where the ethnic armies seized major military bases, regional towns, administrative centres, and border crossings. 

Overall, the situation in Myanmar has significantly evolved, with anti-regime forces making notable gains and seizing military bases and towns. The State Administrative Council (SAC) is losing ground to the NUG and EAOs, facing internal divisions and recruitment issues. 

While the military maintains control of urban centres, resistance forces have made significant gains in rural areas. However, challenges like financial constraints, communication issues, and the psychological strain on fighters pose risks to sustaining momentum. Their unity is also fragile due to differing political goals and limited NUG presence on the ground. This disunity raises the possibility of future balkanization (fragmentation) of Myanmar. 

Nevertheless, the military only needs to avoid losing, as maintaining control over central territories ensures access to critical resources. The NUG and EAOs are emerging as key political and military players but lack a safe base area, lacking legitimacy, arms and resources. The conflict may persist without a clear victor, potentially leading to fragmentation. 

It is important to understand that the current challenges in Myanmar stem from inherent problems within the country itself. Therefore, there is an urgent need to initiate an inclusive dialogue involving all stakeholders to address the root causes of the conflict, such as ethnic tensions, excessive military involvement in civilian government, and revising provisions of the 2008 Constitution. 

A multi-pronged approach that prioritises humanitarian assistance, inclusive dialogue, and regional cooperation with immediate neighbours offers a glimmer of hope for a peaceful and democratic future for Myanmar.

Cchavi Vasisht is a Research Associate at Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi. She has a PhD from School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above and the information available are those of the author/s and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the position of Asian Confluence