Since February 1, 2021, Myanmar has been witnessing one of the cruellest military crackdowns in the political history of the country. Solution to the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar will have to be from within the country, but survival of the ruling regime will be a function of both internal dynamics as well as external factors.
In the era of complex interdependence, a regime in any country (especially those of strategic importance) can only survive as long as it enjoys external (international) as well as internal (national) legitimacy. For Myanmar, this idea of legitimacy is closely intertwined with the notions of democracy and development.
Seizing state power is the easy part, but what has often proved to be more challenging is holding on to power. The most critical factor that determines the survival of a regime is gaining legitimacy, both internal and external. Myanmar’s own recent history is a testimony to this test of sustaining power.
The opening up of limited democratic space witnessed the rise of the National League for Democracy’s (NLD). The upswell of pro-democracy in the country was manifested in the 2020 elections when the NLD won a landslide victory. However, the democratic consolidation process was cut short by the coup of 2021.
In 2004, the then military regime announced ‘A Seven-Step Roadmap to a Discipline Flourishing Democracy’ that was followed by the approval of a quasi-democratic constitution in May 2008 and the national elections (neither free nor fair) held in November 2010. This opening up was meant to achieve international legitimacy, while keeping intact the Tatmadaw’s interest of enjoying the largest share of political power.
The democracy (with limited civil liberties) claimed to be in the best interest of Myanmar, was founded on the idea that foreign direct investments and international cooperation was crucial for the country’s development; inclusivity (in an already existing fissured and divided society with numerous ethnic armed organisations) and in balancing China.
This restricted democracy did bring positive results in terms of FDIs (mostly from India, Japan, Australia, South Korea and Singapore) and bilateral and multilateral cooperation as strategy of hedging against China but yielded minimal results in promoting inclusivity. Myanmar’s efforts to diversify its diplomatic ties in the phase of democratic transition were all aimed towards promoting economic and infrastructure development.
When the NLD came to power in 2015, Daw Aung San Syu Kyi’s leadership further helped Myanmar shrug off its isolationism. This phase saw several countries investing in the country, rapprochement with the United States and a multi-aligned foreign policy, all intended towards socio-economic development of Myanmar. All these developments aimed at achieving inclusivity further consolidated the regime’s (the civilian government) position within the country.
The 2021 coup has shut all opportunities of socio-economic development through international cooperation closing all possibilities for the incumbent junta to acquire legitimacy. Political, diplomatic and economic assistance from foreign nations remain a determining factor in Myanmar’s internal development and regime’s survival in power.
International response to the Myanmar coup has been divided. The West led by the United States have condemned the junta and imposed sixth round of sanctions for punishing the military regime. ASEAN nations, India, Japan, South Korea have engaged with the Myanmar regime with the aim to restore democracy, promote development and counter Chinese influence. Major powers such as China and Russia have extended their support to the junta.
For Myanmar, engagement with its neighbours has been aimed towards accruing developmental dividends and to craft a strategy to prevent them from excessive intervention into its internal political sphere. However, the absence of democracy has always posed a challenge for Myanmar to accrue its long-standing quest for development and autonomy.
The quest for internal legitimacy—ensuing from democracy, development and inclusivity; the external legitimacy that can emerge from democracy and cooperation; and the popularity and strength of the National Unity Government (comprising of NLD and ethnic armed organisation) as the opposition will pose the greatest challenge for the incumbent junta to survive in power this time.
Sampurna Goswami is an Assistant Professor of Political Science, Sukanta College, University of Calcutta.
Disclaimer: The views expressed above and the information available are those of the author/s and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the position of Asian Confluence
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