Great Power Competition in Myanmar amidst Deepening Political Crisis

 Keywords: Myanmar, Great Power Competition, China, the U.S., Russia, India, ASEAN

Date: 08 January 2024

Myanmar has been in turmoil since February 2021, when the military took over power in a coup. As the political crisis deepens in Myanmar, the geopolitical dynamics has also intensified with the West-led by the U.S. scaling up sanctions on the junta, while China and Russia extending diplomatic and military support to the military regime. 

Given its geo-strategical significance, Myanmar has long been a playground of power game among great powers. For China, Myanmar facilitates direct access to the Indian Ocean. With the junta on its side, China aims to complete the developmental projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is opposed by the local people of Myanmar. China also wants to procure and secure the energy corridor from the Kyaukphyu deep sea port. 

Taking the junta’s side, Beijing wants to keep a check on and weakens the West’s influence. At the same time, Beijing’s pendulum swings between the junta and ethnic rebel groups by  supplying the latter with “man-portable air-defence systems, howitzers, a wide range of mortars, rocket launchers, machine-guns and assault rifles and armoured personnel carriers” to groups such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA). 

Beijing has also been playing as a peace broker between the junta and Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). In December 2022, China’s special envoy for Myanmar met the seven most potent EAOs. Beijing did not devise any political solution, rather it asked the EAOs to distance themselves from the West-backed National Unity Government (NUG). The Chinese peace initiatives have not achieved any positive results so far. 

Myanmar has long depended on Russia for military assistance and protection in the United Nations. In the face of Western sanctions in the context of the Ukraine conflict and political crisis in Myanmar, Russia and Myanmar have grown closer. Russia has continued to supply military assistance to Myanmar including aircrafts. In a sign of deepening strategic relations, Russia and Myanmar conducted joint naval drills in the Andaman Sea in November 2023. 

Russia and Myanmar also signed an MoU for the construction of a nuclear power plant in October 2023. Once the project is completed, Myanmar will benefit from overcoming its fuel and electricity crisis. Myanmar, which connects South and Southeast Asia, provides a new gateway for Russia by connecting the Western Indian Ocean with the Eastern Indian Ocean. 

Following the 2021 coup, the U.S. imposed sanctions on selected personnel or enterprises of the Myanmar military. The Western powers refused to recognize the military regime as a legitimate government. Instead, they supported the NUG, the National Unity Consultative Council, and other groups in reestablishing democracy. The Western powers also aligned their approaches with ASEAN and supported the regional bloc’s five-point consensus to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar. However, the effort was unsuccessful in the context of ASEAN’s failure to implement the plan. 

The U.S. and the European Union’s sanctions on the junta and its business network did not bear the desired outcomes. On the other hand, China has positioned itself as an economic source for Myanmar which the junta has cleverly adapted to and leveraged to its advantage. Simultaneously, China has managed to engage with Myanmar’s warring parties to protect its interests, whereas the West-led by the U.S. does not enjoy such a position in Myanmar. 

Sharing a porous border with Myanmar, India has been adversely impacted since the coup, especially in its Northeastern region, due to the influx of Myanmar refugees from across the border. Given the trans-border issues pertinent to immigration, insurgency, and drug trafficking, India has maintained a balancing approach to protect its security interests and urged the junta to restore democracy. The deepening political crisis deepens in Myanmar may further intensify the great power competition and India’s current approach may perhaps be the most practical approach in safeguarding its interests in Myanmar.

Anuradha Oinam is currently associated with the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), a Delhi-based Think Tank.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above and the information available  are those of the author/s and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the position of Asian Confluence