A Test of Resilience: Ensuring BIMSTEC’s Cohesion During Political Turmoil in Bangladesh

 Keywords: BIMSTEC, Bangladesh, India, Leadership, Regional Cooperation, SAARC

Date: 16th Sept 2024

The current political situation in Bangladesh is a significant challenge for India and its leadership role in the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). As a regional organization, BIMSTEC can help boost economic cooperation, integration, connectivity, and sustainable development in South and South East Asia.

The political instability in Bangladesh could pose a challenge to the cohesiveness and effectiveness of BIMSTEC. Similar to the situation with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Thus, India should ensure that the BIMSTEC does not suffer from the same fate. To avoid such an impasse, it is essential to adopt a proactive, inclusive, and strategic approach.

Dhaka is one of the key players in BIMSTEC. It has been involved since the organization’s formation and its stability is essential for the balanced functioning of BIMSTEC. Dhaka is in the middle of a multi-faceted crisis and the implications and negative consequences are being witnessed across the entire region.

The political instability threatens the country’s democracy and further heightens economic challenges that have been suffering from high inflation rate, supply chain issues, and the effects of COVID-19 pandemic. These developments not only threaten Bangladesh’s internal stability but can also have a domino effect on the whole region with implications on trade, migration, and security.

The change in regime might lead to a serious revaluation of diplomatic policies and regional cooperation approaches. The domestic unrest could push Dhaka to either enhance its relations with regional neighbours such as India, but if the situation further deteriorates, it might follow a more isolationist position.

Furthermore, increasing involvement of Beijing in the South Asian region, specifically with its BRI initiatives, has reinforced Dhaka’s economic and diplomatic relations with Beijing. As Dhaka balances its ties with New Delhi and Beijing, BIMSTEC risks becoming another battlefield for regional rivalries. India, which has a long and porous border with Bangladesh has high stakes if the latter shifts stance toward its neighbours.

India is the biggest and the preeminent player in BIMSTEC and other member-states closely watch New Delhi’s approach to the situation in Bangladesh. India has been treading cautiously with a perspective that would best serve its national interest and regional power status.

New Delhi has also learned from the SAARC experience that regional organizations must not be allowed to drift out of focus. The major challenge that has affected SAARC has been the India and Pakistan rivalry, which has hijacked discussions in the organization and eventually pushed it to a stalemate.

SAARC summits have often been boycotted and ultimately rendered the organization almost ineffectual. It is imperative to ensure that BIMSTEC does not stray away from the organization’s economic cooperation, connectivity, and sustainable development goals.

In the recent second BIMSTEC Foreign Ministers’ Retreat, which was held in India, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar expressed New Delhi’s dedication to capacity building and knowledge sharing among the members of BIMSTEC. He urged every member state to adequately contribute and avail from the regional energy grid.

This includes a variety of projects designed to improve the vocational potentials of the BIMSTEC nations, concentrating on the latest technical management, sustainable energies, and mutual understanding of energy coherent dynamics. This underscores the need to ensure that bilateral issues were not encouraged to dominate the BIMSTEC agenda, rather focusing on issues that benefit all the member countries.

The effectiveness of the organization is dependent on the support of all the member countries. Therefore, India can take the lead in such efforts of mutual concern and address generic issues. Initiatives could be taken on the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement, which has been in discussion for several years now. Any progress on one front will bring a sense of achieving common goals and dedication to the organization.

There is another critical area where India can add value to BIMSTEC is the area of institutional building. New Delhi can endeavour to form bodies like the Security Coordination Committee and Crisis Management Council in BIMSTEC to help handle crises that could occur in the region.

These may include scheduled summits to discuss new challenges, a humanitarian response standby fund, and the identification of common security threats, which include terrorism, piracy, and natural disasters. In this regard, it could be ensured that the BIMSTEC remains relevant and efficient by incorporating resilience.

For India, this means leading the organization for a more comprehensive approach to regionalism that would benefit all the members. Moreover, New Delhi will have to walk the tightrope between asserting its leadership and being aware of the sovereignty and independence of the partner countries. It will also involve New Delhi to understand the interests of other smaller member countries and their concerns, as they may feel overwhelmed by India.

Demonstrating sincerity towards regional stability and cooperation could pave the path towards mustering inclusive growth and development. It could be an example of collaboration for South and Southeast Asian countries, which may be deemed as beneficiaries of enhanced peace, stability, and development.

The crisis in Bangladesh is a significant test of India’s leadership within BIMSTEC and even the Act East and Neighbourhood First Policy. Therefore, to avoid the path of SAARC’s conflictual functioning, BIMSTEC will have to operate under a decisive and cooperative leadership. How New Delhi navigates the challenges will greatly determine the role of BIMSTEC as a platform of regional cooperation with resilience.

Bidisha Deka is an intern with Asian Confluence and currently pursuing her Masters in International Relations at the South Asian University.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above and the information available are those of the author/s and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the position of Asian Confluence