The Brahmaputra River is part of a major river system in Central and South Asia. It flows through Tibet, India, and Bangladesh, and empties into the Bay of Bengal. The river is fed by snow and glacial melt and is known for its large and variable flow. Brahmaputra is one of the largest rivers in the world and ranks fifth with respect to its average discharge. The river originates from the Kailash ranges of Himalayas at an elevation of 5300 M. After flowing through Tibet (China), it enters India through Arunachal Pradesh and flows through Assam and Bangladesh before it joins Bay of Bengal. The river slope is very steep when it enters India. From Tibet, the river enters India’s Arunachal Pradesh, where it is known as the Siang. In Assam, it is joined by tributaries such as the Dibang and Lohit and is then called the Brahmaputra. The river continues into Bangladesh and finally flows into the Bay of Bengal. Due to this sudden flattening of river slope, the river becomes braided in nature in the Assam valley making the region susceptible to flooding. During its course in Assam valley from Kobo to Dhubri the river is joined by about 20 (twenty) important tributaries on its North bank and 13 (thirteen) on its South bank. Joining of these tributaries, bringing high sediment load activates braiding. The catchment area of Brahmaputra in Tibet is 2, 93,000 Sq. Km; in India and Bhutan is 2,40,000 Sq. Km and in Bangladesh is 47,000 Sq. Km. The Brahmaputra basin extends over an area of 5,80,000 Sq. Km up to its confluence within Bangladesh. The sub-basin lies in the States of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, West Bengal and Sikkim. Thus, Brahmaputra has an indelible effect on the lives, livelihoods of millions in the lower riparian states spanning China, the northeastern states of India, Bhutan and Bangladesh

On December 25, China approved the construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet near the Indian border, referred to as the Great Bend Dam. This site is where the Yarlung Tsangpo makes a U-turn in China’s Medog County before entering Arunachal. On completion, the 60,000 MW project will have the capacity to produce three times the electricity of the world’s largest hydro project, the Three Gorges Dam in central China. This project, estimated to cost USD137 billion, has raised alarms in both India and Bangladesh. According to China, the dam will help transition away from conventional energy sources and contribute to achieving net carbon neutrality by 2060. The Yarlung Tsangpo is considered ideal for hydroelectricity generation. The proposed dam promises abundant water resources and could generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, enough to power more than 300 million people. However, there are legitimate concerns about this project. The dam could disrupt water flow from Tibet, posing risks of flash floods or reduced water availability downstream.

This would directly affect agriculture and water supply in India, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as in Bangladesh, increasing dependency on China for this critical resource. Experts and officials have also flagged concerns that the dam would give China control over the flow of a transboundary river. A 2020 report by the Lowy Institute, an Australia-based think tank, noted that controlling these rivers effectively gives China a stranglehold on India’s economy. The dam also threatens the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, home to critically endangered species. Climate change, deforestation, and soil erosion compound the potential ecological risks. The region’s dramatic topography presents significant engineering challenges. The site of the project lies along an earthquake-prone tectonic plate boundary, raising concerns about the safety of such a massive structure. Chinese researchers have previously warned that extensive excavation and construction in the steep and narrow gorges will increase the frequency of landslides and earthquakes. Reports suggest the colossal development will require at least 420 km of tunnels to be drilled through the Namcha Barwa Mountain, diverting the flow of the Yarlung Tsangpo River. The risks to displaced communities, loos of habitat to many life forms, loss of intangible culture and lifestyle of riverine communities.

India has proposed the construction of the Siang Dam in Arunachal Pradesh. This dam will be one of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects, with a potential capacity of 11,000 MW. The project aims to ensure that India maintains control over water resources vital for agriculture, drinking water, and industry in the north-eastern states. It will also help regulate water flow and mitigate the risks of sudden releases from the Chinese dam upstream.

Will the construction of the Siang Dam add a new layer of complexity to the already strained ties between India and China? Recent efforts, such as the October meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, sought to de-escalate border tensions. The lack of communication with India regarding major upstream projects raises concerns about water security for lower riparian states. Lessons from the Mekong River, where China’s upstream control has significantly affected downstream countries, highlight the need for learning from the Mekong Experience on transboundary cooperation. As Xi Jingping stated “We should protect nature and preserve the environment like we protect our lives”. However, the question remains; Can we trust China? Given past instances where China has withheld crucial hydrological data from India, concerns over transparency and cooperation persists. Anecdotal evidence from the past flooding incidents and unexpected changes in water flow patterns has raised alarms amongst experts and local communities. The need of the hour is a scientific assessment with ground realities, incorporating CWC data for water flow in India and top global experts to make an assessment of the environmental impact concerns.

Asian Confluence proposes a workshop in Guwahati, Assam which will aim for the following objectives:

• An impartial assessment of the situation by top global experts
• Highlight the voice and concerns of local communities.
• Provide a platform for discussion between various governmental and civil society stakeholders to come up with a series of concrete recommendations that could be further taken up at appropriate international and national fora.

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